文章作者：John Sackton 譯/中國水產(chǎn)頻道 郭金鳳 中國水產(chǎn)頻道獨家報道，EMS是23年來墨西哥對蝦養(yǎng)殖業(yè)者遭受的第四次重大爆發(fā)性疾病，根據(jù)最近的NFI全球海鮮營銷大會的討論結(jié)果，EMS的影響是其中最嚴(yán)重的一次爆發(fā)性疾病，是全行業(yè)的重大災(zāi)難。 2013年11月為止，墨西哥對美國的去頭蝦出口量下降了32.8％。據(jù)官方統(tǒng)計，隨著疾病的爆發(fā)，對蝦總產(chǎn)量預(yù)計從約10萬噸下降到5.5萬噸�，F(xiàn)在看5.5萬噸多少顯得有些樂觀。 EMS已經(jīng)到達(dá)索諾拉，比錫那羅亞州發(fā)病情況更為嚴(yán)重，索諾拉的養(yǎng)殖者已經(jīng)采取了更有效措施進(jìn)行防治。索諾拉州的對蝦產(chǎn)量預(yù)計將下降超過66％，而錫那羅亞州產(chǎn)量將下降30％至40％。2009年索諾拉州的對蝦產(chǎn)量達(dá)到高峰值，約8.5萬噸，但在2012年，因為疾病問題，很多農(nóng)民轉(zhuǎn)養(yǎng)其他品種，使對蝦產(chǎn)量下降到3.5萬噸，并有可能在2013年產(chǎn)量低于1.2萬噸。 明年情況改善的可能性不大。三角洲藍(lán)色水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖公司（Delta Blue Aquaculture）總裁、NFI會議發(fā)言者之一比爾·洪尼格（Bill Hoenig），估計2014年只有約60％的農(nóng)場會繼續(xù)養(yǎng)殖對蝦，即使繼續(xù)養(yǎng)殖也只會養(yǎng)一造。 墨西哥國內(nèi)對蝦市場蝦價飆升，即使是小規(guī)模的蝦也暴漲至超過4美元/磅，出口美國的批發(fā)價為4.50美元/磅。蝦價達(dá)到這個水平的時候，養(yǎng)殖者會毫不猶豫地出蝦，而不會選擇繼續(xù)在塘里養(yǎng)下去。 洪尼格說，從長遠(yuǎn)來看將會有大量養(yǎng)殖場合并，因為只有有能力的養(yǎng)殖場才能生存下去，而他們會投資收購資金不足的養(yǎng)殖場。 原文： Posted: Friday, January 17, 2014 Mexican shrimp production likely to fall more than expected in 2013, will stay depressed in 2014 SEAFOODNEWS.COM by John Sackton Jan 17, 2014 EMS is the fourth major disease outbreak to hit Mexican shrimp growers in the last 23 years, and according to the discussions at the recent NFI Global Seafood Marketing Conference, it will have the most severe impact yet, and is catastrophic for the industry. Imports of headless shrimp from Mexico to the US are down 32.8% through November. As the disease took hold, total aquaculture shrimp production was expected to fall from about 100,000 tons to 55,000 tons according to official statistics. Now that 55,000 ton number looks optimistic.  Total Mexican farmed shrimp production - Estimate from Conapesca-Sagarpa. 墨西哥養(yǎng)殖對蝦總產(chǎn)量-墨西哥全國水產(chǎn)養(yǎng)殖和漁業(yè)委員會數(shù)據(jù) The disease has hit Sonora much harder than Sinaloa, where farmers have taken more effective measures. In Sonora, production is expected to fall more than 66%, while in Sinaloa, production will be down between 30% and 40%. Sonora based shrimp production peaked in 2009 at around 85,000 tons, but disease issues and farmers switching to other crops have pushed that number down to 35,000 tons in 2012, and likely lower than 12,000 tons in 2013. Little improvement is expected next year. Bill Hoenig, president of Delta Blue Aquaculture and one of the speakers at the NFI conference, estimated that only about 60% of the farms will even stock next year, and those that do will only do one quick cycle. The strength of the Mexican domestic shrimp market has sent prices for even small size shrimp skyrocketing to over $4.00 a pound in Mexico, and $4.50 wholesale in the U.S. At these prices farmers will harvest small shrimp at the drop of a hat, and not take the risk of keeping shrimp in their ponds if they get the slightest whiff of problems. Over the long term, says Hoenig, there will be substantial consolidation as only those farmers who will invest in more intensive shrimp culture will be able to survive, and they will be buying up the weaker farms, who cannot invest. Further adding to pressure on the shrimp market is that Mexico has become a strong importer of shrimp given the fall off in domestic production. www.Seafood.com是北美最大的漁業(yè)信息網(wǎng)站，與《水產(chǎn)前沿》、中國水產(chǎn)頻道已建立合作關(guān)系。 【關(guān)鍵字】：EMS 墨西哥養(yǎng)蝦業(yè) 對蝦養(yǎng)殖 中國水產(chǎn)頻道（www.fuqitext.com ）獨家報道，轉(zhuǎn)載請說明出處，違者追究法律責(zé)任， 謝謝合作。 |
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